Section 3: Modelling the Incidence and Prevalence of Hepatitis C Infection and its Sequelae in Canada, 2007 – Results
3. Results
3.1 Actuarial model of HCV infection
The results of the modelling of HCV infection in Canada are presented in Tables 1 through 4.
Tables 1a, 1b and 1c present the estimated number of prevalent and incident HCV infections by place of birth, sex and exposure category in Canada in 2007. Overall, among 31,220,455 persons living in Canada as of December 2007, we estimated that 242,521 were infected with hepatitis C, for a prevalence rate of 0.78% or about one in 129 persons. Persons born in Canada accounted for 190,960 (79%) of these infections compared to 51,560 (21%) among immigrants. The HCV prevalence rate in persons born outside Canada was only slightly higher than that among persons born in Canada (0.80% compared to 0.77%). Sixty-one percent of prevalent HCV infections were among males, who had a prevalence rate 1.6-fold higher than females.
As expected, the majority of prevalent HCV infections were among IDUs. Current and ex-IDUs accounted for 139,964 (58%) of HCV-infected persons in Canada. Persons who were infected through the receipt of a blood transfusion accounted for 25,905 (11%) of HCV infections, hemophilia patients 861 (0.3%) and persons infected by other routes of transmission 75,790 (31%).
Tables 1a, 1b and 1c also present the estimated number of incident HCV infections by exposure category and sex in Canada in calendar year 2007 for all Canadian residents, persons born in Canada, and immigrants, respectively. Overall, we estimated that 7,945 persons in Canada were newly infected with HCV in 2007, for an overall incidence rate of 0.026% or about one in 3,900 persons. 5,185 (65%) of new HCV infections occurred in men, whose incidence rate was almost double that of women (0.034% compared to 0.018%). As expected, 83% of new HCV infections occurred in active IDUs.
Tables 1a, 1b and 1c include estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence. In our model, we estimated that 10,458 HCV-infected persons were also infected with HIV. This cannot be interpreted as an estimate of total HCV-HIV co-infection in Canada since HIV infection was included only to allow for competing mortality and therefore limited to IDU and hemophilia patients as described in Section 2.1. IDUs accounted for 98% of HCV-HIV co-infected persons in our model.
* Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations Note: A dash "-" indicates a category not included in the model |
|||||||||
Sex | Population | Prevalence (Exposure category) | Incidence (Exposure category) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HCV | HIV co-infection | HCV | HIV co-infection | ||||||
n | rate | n | rate | n | rate | n | rate | ||
IDU | |||||||||
Male | 56,626 | 35,373 | 62.5% | 3,765 | 6.6% | 4,481 | 21.1% | 571 | 1.1% |
Female | 27,735 | 17,139 | 61.8% | 1,788 | 6.4% | 2,126 | 20.1% | 270 | 1.0% |
Total* | 84,361 | 52,512 | 62.2% | 5,553 | 6.6% | 6,607 | 20.7% | 841 | 1.1% |
Ex-IDU | |||||||||
Male | 122,550 | 58,476 | 47.7% | 3,178 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Female | 61,290 | 28,977 | 47.3% | 1,530 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Total* | 183,839 | 87,452 | 47.6% | 4,708 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Hemophilia | |||||||||
Male | 2,162 | 861 | 39.8% | 197 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Female | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Total* | 2,162 | 861 | 39.8% | 197 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Transfused | |||||||||
Male | 1,577,958 | 12,847 | 0.81% | - | - | 1 | 0.000% | - | - |
Female | 1,747,788 | 13,058 | 0.75% | - | - | 1 | 0.000% | - | - |
Total* | 3,325,746 | 25,905 | 0.78% | - | - | 1 | 0.000% | - | - |
Other | |||||||||
Male | 13,653,813 | 39,224 | 0.29% | - | - | 704 | 0.005% | - | - |
Female | 13,970,533 | 36,566 | 0.26% | - | - | 633 | 0.005% | - | - |
Total* | 27,624,347 | 75,790 | 0.27% | - | - | 1,337 | 0.005% | - | - |
Total | |||||||||
Male | 15,413,109 | 146,781 | 0.95% | 7,140 | 0.046% | 5,185 | 0.034% | 571 | 0.0% |
Female | 15,807,346 | 95,740 | 0.61% | 3,318 | 0.021% | 2,760 | 0.018% | 270 | 0.0% |
Total* | 31,220,455 | 242,521 | 0.78% | 10,458 | 0.033% | 7,945 | 0.026% | 841 | 0.0% |
* Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations Note: A dash "-" indicates a category not included in the model |
|||||||||
Sex | Population | Prevalence (Exposure category) | Incidence (Exposure category) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HCV | HIV co-infection | HCV | HIV co-infection | ||||||
n | rate | n | rate | n | rate | n | rate | ||
IDU | |||||||||
Male | 49,735 | 31,388 | 63.1% | 3,400 | 6.8% | 3,945 | 21.5% | 511 | 1.1% |
Female | 24,338 | 15,186 | 62.4% | 1,611 | 6.6% | 1,865 | 20.4% | 241 | 1.1% |
Total* | 74,073 | 46,574 | 62.9% | 5,011 | 6.8% | 5,810 | 21.1% | 751 | 1.1% |
Ex-IDU | |||||||||
Male | 107,678 | 51,902 | 48.2% | 2,869 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Female | 53,950 | 25,746 | 47.7% | 1,379 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Total* | 161,628 | 77,647 | 48.0% | 4,248 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Hemophilia | |||||||||
Male | 2,162 | 861 | 39.8% | 197 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Female | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Total* | 2,162 | 861 | 39.8% | 197 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Transfused | |||||||||
Male | 1,247,010 | 10,599 | 0.85% | - | - | 0.4 | 0.0% | - | - |
Female | 1,353,113 | 10,775 | 0.80% | - | - | 0.5 | 0.0% | - | - |
Total* | 2,600,122 | 21,374 | 0.82% | - | - | 0.9 | 0.0% | - | - |
Other | |||||||||
Male | 10,918,419 | 23,457 | 0.21% | - | - | 658 | 0.006% | - | - |
Female | 11,027,878 | 21,048 | 0.19% | - | - | 557 | 0.005% | - | - |
Total* | 21,946,297 | 44,504 | 0.20% | - | - | 1,215 | 0.006% | - | - |
Total | |||||||||
Male | 12,325,003 | 118,207 | 0.96% | 6,466 | 0.052% | 4,604 | 0.038% | 511 | 0.004% |
Female | 12,459,279 | 72,754 | 0.58% | 2,990 | 0.024% | 2,423 | 0.020% | 241 | 0.002% |
Total* | 24,784,282 | 190,960 | 0.77% | 9,456 | 0.038% | 7,026 | 0.029% | 751 | 0.003% |
* Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations Note: A dash "-" indicates a category not included in the model |
|||||||||
Sex | Population | Prevalence (Exposure category) | Incidence (Exposure category) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HCV | HIV co-infection | HCV | HIV co-infection | ||||||
n | rate | n | rate | n | rate | n | rate | ||
IDU | |||||||||
Male | 6,891 | 3,984 | 57.8% | 365 | 5.3% | 535 | 18.4% | 60 | 0.92% |
Female | 3,397 | 1,953 | 57.5% | 177 | 5.2% | 261 | 18.1% | 29 | 0.91% |
Total* | 10,287 | 5,938 | 57.7% | 542 | 5.3% | 797 | 18.3% | 89 | 0.92% |
Ex-IDU | |||||||||
Male | 14,871 | 6,574 | 44.2% | 309 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Female | 7,340 | 3,231 | 44.0% | 151 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Total* | 22,211 | 9,805 | 44.1% | 460 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Hemophilia | |||||||||
Male | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Female | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Total* | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
Transfused | |||||||||
Male | 330,949 | 2,248 | 0.68% | - | - | 0 | 0.0% | - | - |
Female | 394,675 | 2,283 | 0.58% | - | - | 0 | 0.0% | - | - |
Total* | 725,624 | 4,531 | 0.62% | - | - | 0 | 0.0% | - | - |
Other | |||||||||
Male | 2,735,395 | 15,768 | 0.58% | - | - | 46 | 0.002% | - | - |
Female | 2,942,655 | 15,518 | 0.53% | - | - | 76 | 0.003% | - | - |
Total* | 5,678,050 | 31,286 | 0.55% | - | - | 122 | 0.002% | - | - |
Total | |||||||||
Male | 3,088,105 | 28,574 | 0.93% | 674 | 0.022% | 582 | 0.019% | 60 | 0.002% |
Female | 3,348,067 | 22,986 | 0.69% | 328 | 0.010% | 337 | 0.010% | 29 | 0.001% |
Total* | 6,436,172 | 51,560 | 0.80% | 1,002 | 0.016% | 919 | 0.014% | 89 | 0.001% |
Tables 2a, 2b and 2c present the prevalence of HCV infection in Canada in 2007 by sex and age group for all Canadian residents, persons born in Canada, and immigrants, respectively. The pattern of HCV prevalence by age was somewhat different among those born in Canada than among immigrants. For persons born in Canada, HCV prevalence increased with increasing age to a peak of 1.37% in persons 55-59 years of age and then decreased thereafter. For persons born elsewhere, HCV prevalence increased with increasing age, attaining 2.15% in those 90+ years of age, the oldest age group. Overall, the HCV prevalence rate was 0.95% in males and 0.61% in females.
* Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
|||||||||
Age (years) |
Male | Female | Both sexes | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | HCV number |
HCV rate |
Population | HCV number |
HCV rate |
Population | HCV number* |
HCV rate |
|
0-4 | 883,789 | 36 | 0.004% | 850,404 | 54 | 0.006% | 1,734,193 | 89 | 0.005% |
5-9 | 888,541 | 106 | 0.012% | 854,537 | 149 | 0.017% | 1,743,078 | 256 | 0.015% |
10-14 | 1,020,302 | 186 | 0.018% | 979,790 | 253 | 0.026% | 2,000,091 | 439 | 0.022% |
15-19 | 1,124,092 | 1,099 | 0.098% | 1,082,505 | 752 | 0.069% | 2,206,597 | 1,851 | 0.084% |
20-24 | 1,091,925 | 4,420 | 0.40% | 1,063,587 | 2,505 | 0.24% | 2,155,512 | 6,925 | 0.32% |
25-29 | 1,096,850 | 9,966 | 0.91% | 1,090,286 | 5,500 | 0.50% | 2,187,136 | 15,465 | 0.71% |
30-34 | 1,079,204 | 13,822 | 1.28% | 1,088,544 | 7,730 | 0.71% | 2,167,748 | 21,552 | 0.99% |
35-39 | 1,112,922 | 16,112 | 1.45% | 1,130,875 | 9,319 | 0.82% | 2,243,798 | 25,431 | 1.13% |
40-44 | 1,248,603 | 17,864 | 1.43% | 1,269,229 | 10,632 | 0.84% | 2,517,832 | 28,496 | 1.13% |
45-49 | 1,400,255 | 20,107 | 1.44% | 1,427,374 | 12,354 | 0.87% | 2,827,629 | 32,460 | 1.15% |
50-54 | 1,298,141 | 19,196 | 1.48% | 1,336,508 | 12,232 | 0.92% | 2,634,649 | 31,428 | 1.19% |
55-59 | 1,048,727 | 15,955 | 1.52% | 1,098,456 | 10,602 | 0.97% | 2,147,183 | 26,557 | 1.24% |
60-64 | 807,019 | 12,033 | 1.49% | 861,344 | 8,465 | 0.98% | 1,668,363 | 20,498 | 1.23% |
65-69 | 541,287 | 7,518 | 1.39% | 598,454 | 5,839 | 0.98% | 1,139,741 | 13,357 | 1.17% |
70-74 | 361,043 | 4,418 | 1.22% | 430,575 | 3,967 | 0.92% | 791,618 | 8,385 | 1.06% |
75-79 | 238,948 | 2,369 | 0.99% | 324,150 | 2,621 | 0.81% | 563,098 | 4,990 | 0.89% |
80-84 | 118,654 | 998 | 0.84% | 195,459 | 1,519 | 0.78% | 314,113 | 2,517 | 0.80% |
85-89 | 42,735 | 404 | 0.94% | 91,554 | 840 | 0.92% | 134,288 | 1,244 | 0.93% |
90+ | 10,071 | 172 | 1.71% | 33,715 | 408 | 1.21% | 43,786 | 580 | 1.33% |
Total* | 15,413,109 | 146,781 | 0.95% | 15,807,346 | 95,740 | 0.61% | 31,220,455 | 242,521 | 0.78% |
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||||||||
Age (years) |
Male | Female | Both sexes | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | HCV number |
HCV rate |
Population | HCV number |
HCV rate |
Population | HCV number* |
HCV rate |
||
0-4 | 864,684 | 4 | 0.000% | 830,727 | 3 | 0.000% | 1,695,411 | 7 | 0.000% | |
5-9 | 833,279 | 10 | 0.001% | 800,939 | 8 | 0.001% | 1,634,219 | 18 | 0.001% | |
10-14 | 927,883 | 18 | 0.002% | 892,550 | 15 | 0.002% | 1,820,433 | 32 | 0.002% | |
15-19 | 993,638 | 811 | 0.082% | 957,931 | 384 | 0.040% | 1,951,569 | 1,195 | 0.061% | |
20-24 | 925,422 | 3,708 | 0.40% | 896,501 | 1,852 | 0.21% | 1,821,924 | 5,560 | 0.31% | |
25-29 | 901,281 | 8,460 | 0.94% | 879,338 | 4,341 | 0.49% | 1,780,619 | 12,801 | 0.72% | |
30-34 | 849,516 | 11,520 | 1.36% | 835,708 | 6,064 | 0.73% | 1,685,223 | 17,585 | 1.04% | |
35-39 | 843,433 | 13,134 | 1.56% | 836,410 | 7,214 | 0.86% | 1,679,843 | 20,348 | 1.21% | |
40-44 | 957,000 | 14,738 | 1.54% | 956,860 | 8,434 | 0.88% | 1,913,860 | 23,172 | 1.21% | |
45-49 | 1,056,494 | 16,564 | 1.57% | 1,065,175 | 9,838 | 0.92% | 2,121,669 | 26,402 | 1.24% | |
50-54 | 948,282 | 15,580 | 1.64% | 967,158 | 9,586 | 0.99% | 1,915,440 | 25,166 | 1.31% | |
55-59 | 748,060 | 12,767 | 1.71% | 775,995 | 8,172 | 1.05% | 1,524,055 | 20,939 | 1.37% | |
60-64 | 563,752 | 9,418 | 1.67% | 596,692 | 6,375 | 1.07% | 1,160,444 | 15,793 | 1.36% | |
65-69 | 364,918 | 5,585 | 1.53% | 400,258 | 4,166 | 1.04% | 765,176 | 9,751 | 1.27% | |
70-74 | 246,464 | 3,166 | 1.28% | 292,606 | 2,743 | 0.94% | 539,070 | 5,908 | 1.10% | |
75-79 | 173,044 | 1,677 | 0.97% | 234,790 | 1,803 | 0.77% | 407,834 | 3,480 | 0.85% | |
80-84 | 88,085 | 669 | 0.76% | 144,859 | 989 | 0.68% | 232,944 | 1,658 | 0.71% | |
85-89 | 32,440 | 268 | 0.83% | 69,494 | 536 | 0.77% | 101,934 | 804 | 0.79% | |
90+ | 7,329 | 109 | 1.49% | 25,288 | 231 | 0.91% | 32,616 | 340 | 1.04% | |
Total* | 12,325,003 | 118,207 | 0.96% | 12,459,279 | 72,754 | 0.58% | 24,784,282 | 190,960 | 0.77% |
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||||||||
Age (years) |
Male | Female | Both sexes | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Population | HCV number |
HCV rate |
Population | HCV number |
HCV rate |
Population | HCV number* |
HCV rate |
||
0-4 | 19,105 | 32 | 0.17% | 19,676 | 50 | 0.26% | 38,782 | 82 | 0.21% | |
5-9 | 55,262 | 96 | 0.17% | 53,598 | 141 | 0.26% | 108,860 | 237 | 0.22% | |
10-14 | 92,419 | 168 | 0.18% | 87,240 | 238 | 0.27% | 179,659 | 407 | 0.23% | |
15-19 | 130,454 | 288 | 0.22% | 124,574 | 367 | 0.29% | 255,028 | 656 | 0.26% | |
20-24 | 166,502 | 713 | 0.43% | 167,086 | 653 | 0.39% | 333,588 | 1,365 | 0.41% | |
25-29 | 195,569 | 1,506 | 0.77% | 210,948 | 1,158 | 0.55% | 406,517 | 2,664 | 0.66% | |
30-34 | 229,688 | 2,302 | 1.00% | 252,836 | 1,666 | 0.66% | 482,524 | 3,967 | 0.82% | |
35-39 | 269,490 | 2,978 | 1.11% | 294,465 | 2,105 | 0.71% | 563,955 | 5,083 | 0.90% | |
40-44 | 291,603 | 3,126 | 1.07% | 312,369 | 2,198 | 0.70% | 603,972 | 5,324 | 0.88% | |
45-49 | 343,761 | 3,542 | 1.03% | 362,200 | 2,516 | 0.69% | 705,960 | 6,058 | 0.86% | |
50-54 | 349,859 | 3,616 | 1.03% | 369,350 | 2,646 | 0.72% | 719,209 | 6,262 | 0.87% | |
55-59 | 300,667 | 3,188 | 1.06% | 322,461 | 2,430 | 0.75% | 623,127 | 5,618 | 0.90% | |
60-64 | 243,267 | 2,615 | 1.07% | 264,652 | 2,090 | 0.79% | 507,920 | 4,705 | 0.93% | |
65-69 | 176,369 | 1,933 | 1.10% | 198,197 | 1,673 | 0.84% | 374,566 | 3,606 | 0.96% | |
70-74 | 114,579 | 1,253 | 1.09% | 137,969 | 1,224 | 0.89% | 252,548 | 2,477 | 0.98% | |
75-79 | 65,904 | 692 | 1.05% | 89,360 | 818 | 0.92% | 155,264 | 1,510 | 0.97% | |
80-84 | 30,570 | 329 | 1.08% | 50,600 | 530 | 1.05% | 81,169 | 859 | 1.06% | |
85-89 | 10,295 | 135 | 1.32% | 22,060 | 304 | 1.38% | 32,355 | 440 | 1.36% | |
90+ | 2,742 | 63 | 2.29% | 8,427 | 178 | 2.11% | 11,169 | 240 | 2.15% | |
Total* | 3,088,105 | 28,574 | 0.93% | 3,348,067 | 22,986 | 0.69% | 6,436,172 | 51,560 | 0.80% |
Tables 3a, 3b and 3c present the incidence of new HCV infection in Canada in 2007 by sex and age for all Canadian residents, persons born in Canada, and immigrants, respectively. HCV incidence was 2.1-fold higher among persons born in Canada than among immigrants. HCV incidence in males was about double that of females in both groups. However, the higher rate among persons born in Canada was observed for both males and females. In both groups and both sexes, the peak incidence of HCV infection was observed in persons 25-29 years of age. Men 25-29 years of age born in Canada had the highest incidence of any group defined by sex, age and place of birth, with an annual HCV infection rate of 0.159%, or one in 630.
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||||
Age (years) |
Male | Female | Both sexes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HCV number |
Rate | HCV number |
Rate | HCV number* |
Rate | |
0-4 | 1 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% | 3 | 0.000% |
5-9 | 1 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% | 2 | 0.000% |
10-14 | 2 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% | 3 | 0.000% |
15-19 | 318 | 0.028% | 147 | 0.014% | 464 | 0.021% |
20-24 | 976 | 0.090% | 512 | 0.048% | 1,488 | 0.069% |
25-29 | 1,588 | 0.146% | 809 | 0.075% | 2,397 | 0.110% |
30-34 | 1,185 | 0.111% | 627 | 0.058% | 1,812 | 0.084% |
35-39 | 710 | 0.065% | 402 | 0.036% | 1,112 | 0.050% |
40-44 | 231 | 0.019% | 131 | 0.010% | 362 | 0.015% |
45-49 | 127 | 0.009% | 83 | 0.006% | 210 | 0.008% |
50-54 | 17 | 0.001% | 15 | 0.001% | 32 | 0.001% |
55-59 | 11 | 0.001% | 11 | 0.001% | 22 | 0.001% |
60-64 | 8 | 0.001% | 8 | 0.001% | 16 | 0.001% |
65-69 | 5 | 0.001% | 5 | 0.001% | 10 | 0.001% |
70-74 | 3 | 0.001% | 3 | 0.001% | 6 | 0.001% |
75-79 | 2 | 0.001% | 2 | 0.001% | 4 | 0.001% |
80-84 | 1 | 0.001% | 1 | 0.001% | 2 | 0.001% |
85-89 | 0 | 0.001% | 1 | 0.001% | 1 | 0.001% |
90+ | 0 | 0.001% | 0 | 0.001% | 0 | 0.001% |
Total* | 5,185 | 0.034% | 2,760 | 0.018% | 7,945 | 0.026% |
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||||
Age (years) |
Male | Female | Both sexes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HCV number |
Rate | HCV number |
Rate | HCV number* |
Rate | |
0-4 | 1 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% | 3 | 0.000% |
5-9 | 1 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% | 2 | 0.000% |
10-14 | 1 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% | 3 | 0.000% |
15-19 | 297 | 0.030% | 138 | 0.014% | 435 | 0.022% |
20-24 | 895 | 0.097% | 468 | 0.052% | 1,363 | 0.075% |
25-29 | 1,421 | 0.159% | 718 | 0.082% | 2,139 | 0.121% |
30-34 | 1,036 | 0.124% | 540 | 0.065% | 1,576 | 0.095% |
35-39 | 605 | 0.073% | 337 | 0.041% | 942 | 0.057% |
40-44 | 195 | 0.021% | 110 | 0.012% | 305 | 0.016% |
45-49 | 109 | 0.011% | 70 | 0.007% | 180 | 0.009% |
50-54 | 15 | 0.002% | 12 | 0.001% | 27 | 0.001% |
55-59 | 10 | 0.001% | 9 | 0.001% | 19 | 0.001% |
60-64 | 7 | 0.001% | 6 | 0.001% | 13 | 0.001% |
65-69 | 4 | 0.001% | 4 | 0.001% | 8 | 0.001% |
70-74 | 2 | 0.001% | 2 | 0.001% | 5 | 0.001% |
75-79 | 2 | 0.001% | 2 | 0.001% | 3 | 0.001% |
80-84 | 1 | 0.001% | 1 | 0.001% | 2 | 0.001% |
85-89 | 0 | 0.001% | 1 | 0.001% | 1 | 0.001% |
90+ | 0 | 0.001% | 0 | 0.001% | 0 | 0.001% |
Total* | 4,604 | 0.038% | 2,423 | 0.020% | 7,026 | 0.029% |
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||||
Age (years) |
Male | Female | Both sexes | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HCV number |
Rate | HCV number |
Rate | HCV number* |
Rate | |
0-4 | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% |
5-9 | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% |
10-14 | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% |
15-19 | 21 | 0.016% | 9 | 0.007% | 30 | 0.012% |
20-24 | 81 | 0.049% | 44 | 0.026% | 124 | 0.037% |
25-29 | 167 | 0.086% | 91 | 0.043% | 258 | 0.064% |
30-34 | 149 | 0.066% | 86 | 0.034% | 235 | 0.049% |
35-39 | 105 | 0.039% | 65 | 0.022% | 170 | 0.030% |
40-44 | 36 | 0.012% | 22 | 0.007% | 57 | 0.010% |
45-49 | 18 | 0.005% | 13 | 0.004% | 31 | 0.004% |
50-54 | 2 | 0.001% | 3 | 0.001% | 5 | 0.001% |
55-59 | 1 | 0.000% | 2 | 0.001% | 3 | 0.000% |
60-64 | 1 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.001% | 2 | 0.000% |
65-69 | 1 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% | 2 | 0.000% |
70-74 | 0 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% |
75-79 | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% | 1 | 0.000% |
80-84 | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% |
85-89 | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% |
90+ | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% | 0 | 0.000% |
Total* | 582 | 0.019% | 337 | 0.010% | 919 | 0.014% |
3.2 HCV prevalence by province/territory and exposure category
Tables 4a and 4b show the modelled HCV prevalence number and rate in Canada in 2007 by province/territory and exposure category. As seen in Table 4a, the HCV prevalence rate was highest in the Yukon Territories, followed by the Northwest Territories and British Columbia. Three provinces accounted for 80% of HCV infections in Canada, namely Ontario (42%), British Columbia (22%) and Quebec (16%). According to Table 4b, IDUs accounted for 54% to 70% of modelled HCV prevalent infections across provinces and territories.
*The provincial and territorial estimates of HCV prevalence presented here are based on an interpolation from national estimates and may be subject to considerable uncertainty. Provincial/territorial data are definitive should a discrepancy exist **Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations Source: Statistics Canada. Quarterly Demographic Estimates - October to December 2007, Preliminary. Catalogue no. 91-002-X, vol. 21, no. 4. March 2008 |
|||||||||
Province / Territory | IDU | Transfused | Hemophilia | Other | Total** | Rate (per total population) |
Population Dec 31, 2007 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current-IDU | Ex-IDU | Total IDU | |||||||
British Columbia | 11,238 | 18,715 | 29,952 | 5,388 | 102 | 17,811 | 53,254 | 1.21% | 4,413,973 |
Alberta | 4,884 | 8,133 | 13,017 | 2,798 | 81 | 8,185 | 24,081 | 0.69% | 3,497,881 |
Saskatchewan | 1,470 | 2,449 | 3,919 | 466 | 29 | 1,819 | 6,234 | 0.62% | 1,006,644 |
Manitoba | 2,100 | 3,498 | 5,599 | 648 | 33 | 2,122 | 8,401 | 0.70% | 1,193,566 |
Ontario | 21,793 | 36,293 | 58,085 | 11,476 | 328 | 32,969 | 102,858 | 0.80% | 12,861,940 |
Quebec | 8,664 | 14,430 | 23,094 | 3,963 | 215 | 10,232 | 37,505 | 0.49% | 7,730,612 |
New Brunswick | 630 | 1,049 | 1,680 | 311 | 22 | 455 | 2,467 | 0.33% | 751,250 |
Nova Scotia | 945 | 1,574 | 2,519 | 492 | 28 | 1,213 | 4,252 | 0.45% | 935,573 |
PEI | 158 | 262 | 420 | 26 | 4 | 152 | 602 | 0.43% | 139,089 |
Newfoundland | 158 | 262 | 420 | 52 | 16 | 152 | 640 | 0.13% | 508,099 |
Yukon | 263 | 437 | 700 | 130 | 1 | 379 | 1,209 | 3.87% | 31,247 |
Nunavut | 53 | 87 | 140 | 26 | 1 | 76 | 243 | 0.78% | 31,142 |
NWT | 158 | 262 | 420 | 130 | 1 | 227 | 778 | 1.83% | 42,594 |
Canada Total** | 52,512 | 87,452 | 139,964 | 25,905 | 861 | 75,790 | 242,521 | 0.73% | 33,143,610 |
1 Row percent *The provincial and territorial estimates of HCV prevalence presented here are based on an interpolation from national estimates and may be subject to considerable uncertainity. Provincial/territorial data are definitive should a discrepancy exist. **Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||||||||||||
Province / Territory | IDU | Transfused | Hemophilia | Other | Total | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current-IDU | Ex-IDU | Total IDU | ||||||||||||
HCV number |
% 1 | HCV number |
% 1 | HCV number |
% 1 | HCV number |
% 1 | HCV number |
% 1 | HCV number |
% 1 | HCV number** |
% 1 | |
British Columbia | 11,238 | 21.1% | 18,715 | 35.1% | 29,952 | 56.2% | 5,388 | 10.1% | 102 | 0.19% | 17,811 | 33.4% | 53,254 | 100% |
Alberta | 4,884 | 20.3% | 8,133 | 33.8% | 13,017 | 54.1% | 2,798 | 11.6% | 81 | 0.34% | 8,185 | 34.0% | 24,081 | 100% |
Saskatchewan | 1,470 | 23.6% | 2,449 | 39.3% | 3,919 | 62.9% | 466 | 7.5% | 29 | 0.47% | 1,819 | 29.2% | 6,234 | 100% |
Manitoba | 2,100 | 25.0% | 3,498 | 41.6% | 5,599 | 66.6% | 648 | 7.7% | 33 | 0.39% | 2,122 | 25.3% | 8,401 | 100% |
Ontario | 21,793 | 21.2% | 36,293 | 35.3% | 58,085 | 56.5% | 11,476 | 11.2% | 328 | 0.32% | 32,969 | 32.1% | 102,858 | 100% |
Quebec | 8,664 | 23.1% | 14,430 | 38.5% | 23,094 | 61.6% | 3,963 | 10.6% | 215 | 0.57% | 10,232 | 27.3% | 37,505 | 100% |
New Brunswick | 630 | 25.5% | 1,049 | 42.5% | 1,680 | 68.1% | 311 | 12.6% | 22 | 0.87% | 455 | 18.4% | 2,467 | 100% |
Nova Scotia | 945 | 22.2% | 1,574 | 37.0% | 2,519 | 59.3% | 492 | 11.6% | 28 | 0.65% | 1,213 | 28.5% | 4,252 | 100% |
PEI | 158 | 26.2% | 262 | 43.6% | 420 | 69.8% | 26 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.72% | 152 | 25.2% | 602 | 100% |
Newfoundland | 158 | 24.6% | 262 | 41.0% | 420 | 65.6% | 52 | 8.1% | 16 | 2.56% | 152 | 23.7% | 640 | 100% |
Yukon | 263 | 21.7% | 437 | 36.2% | 700 | 57.9% | 130 | 10.7% | 1 | 0.071% | 379 | 31.3% | 1,209 | 100% |
Nunavut | 53 | 21.7% | 87 | 36.1% | 140 | 57.7% | 26 | 10.7% | 1 | 0.35% | 76 | 31.3% | 243 | 100% |
NWT | 158 | 20.3% | 262 | 33.7% | 420 | 54.0% | 130 | 16.7% | 1 | 0.11% | 227 | 29.2% | 778 | 100% |
Canada Total** | 52,512 | 21.7% | 87,452 | 36.1% | 139,964 | 57.7% | 25,905 | 10.7% | 861 | 0.35% | 75,790 | 31.3% | 242,521 | 100% |
3.3 HCV infections among Aboriginal persons
Table 5 presents the number and prevalence of HCV infection among Aboriginal persons in Canada as 2007. We estimated that 34,865 Aboriginal persons were HCV-infected, for a prevalence of 3.0% overall, 4.1% in men and 1.9% in women. It must be realized, however, that this estimate is more of a hypothesis than a conclusion, given the lack of representative data in this population (see Discussion below).
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
|||||||
Sex | Population | Proportion IDU |
Number IDU |
HCV-infected IDU |
HCV-infected other |
HCV-infected total |
HCV-infected rate |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male | 572,090 | 6.0% | 34,325 | 20,595 | 2,689 | 23,284 | 4.1% |
Female | 600,695 | 2.4% | 14,417 | 8,650 | 2,931 | 11,581 | 1.9% |
Total* | 1,172,785 | 4.2% | 48,742 | 29,245 | 5,620 | 34,865 | 3.0% |
HCV prevalence among IDUs
HCV prevalence among others
60%
0.5%
3.4 HCV prevalence among incarcerated persons
Table 6a presents the number and prevalence of HCV infection among incarcerated persons in Canada in 2005. In that year, 20,930 persons were incarcerated in provincial institutions and 12,582 in federal institutions in Canada. We estimated that, overall, 6,261 were HCV-infected, for a prevalence of 18.7%. HCV prevalence among prisoners who were IDU was 61.3% (6,158/10,054) and 0.44% (103/23,458) among others.
Table 6b presents the number and prevalence of HCV infection among incarcerated persons in Canada by federal versus provincial institution and geographic region. HCV prevalence was slightly higher in federal compared to provincial prisons. It must be realized, however, that this estimate is not precise given the lack of representative data in this population and differences in interpreting and reporting practices across the regions (see Discussion below). Slightly more than half (55%) of HCV-infected prisoners were incarcerated in Ontario or Quebec.
Table 6c presents the number and prevalence of HCV infection among incarcerated persons in Canada by IDU status and geographic region. The high relative rate of HCV infection among IDU versus non-IDU was consistent across the geographic regions of Canada.
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||
Provincial | Federal | Total | ||
Prison population | 20,930 | 12,582 | 33,512 | |
Proportion prisoners with history of IDU | 30% | |||
In prison? | Active IDU ? | |||
Yes | No | Total | ||
Yes | 10,054 | 23,458 | 33,512 | |
No | 90,000 | |||
Total | 100,054 | |||
Proportion HCV positive | Provincial | Federal | ||
IDU | 56% | 70% | ||
Non-IDU | 0.10% | 1.0% | ||
Federal prisoners | HCV positive |
HCV negative |
Total* | |
IDU | 2,642 | 1,132 | 3,775 | |
Non-IDU | 88 | 8,719 | 8,807 | |
Total* | 2,730 | 9,852 | 12,582 | |
21.7% | 78.3% | 100.0% | ||
Provincial prisoners | IDU | 3,516 | 2,763 | 6,279 |
Non-IDU | 15 | 14,636 | 14,651 | |
Total* | 3,531 | 17,399 | 20,930 | |
16.9% | 83.1% | 100.0% | ||
All prisoners, Ontario | IDU | 6,158 | 3,895 | 10,054 |
Non-IDU | 103 | 23,356 | 23,458 | |
Total* | 6,261 | 27,251 | 33,512 | |
18.7% | 81.3% | 100.0% | ||
HCV prevalence | ||||
IDU | 61.3% | |||
Non-IDU | 0.44% | |||
Total | 18.7% |
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||||
Pacific | Prairie | Ontario | Quebec | Atlantic | Canada* | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Federal | ||||||
Number | 1,818 | 2,960 | 3,426 | 3,104 | 1,274 | 12,582 |
Prevalence no. | 395 | 642 | 743 | 674 | 276 | 2,730 |
Prevalence rate | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
Provincial | ||||||
Number | 2,470 | 5,365 | 8,115 | 3,946 | 1,034 | 20,930 |
Prevalence no. | 417 | 905 | 1,369 | 666 | 174 | 3,531 |
Prevalence rate | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
All prisoners* | ||||||
Number | 4,288 | 8,325 | 11,541 | 7,050 | 2,308 | 33,512 |
Prevalence no. | 811 | 1,547 | 2,112 | 1,339 | 451 | 6,261 |
Prevalence rate | 18.9% | 18.6% | 18.3% | 19.0% | 19.5% | 18.7% |
*Numbers may not add up exactly due to a combination of modelling uncertainities and the use of rounded whole numbers in the calculations |
||||||
Pacific | Prairie | Ontario | Quebec | Atlantic | Canada* | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IDUs | ||||||
Number | 1,286 | 2,498 | 3,462 | 2,115 | 692 | 10,054 |
Prevalence no. | 797 | 1,523 | 2,083 | 1,315 | 441 | 6,158 |
Prevalence rate | 61.9% | 61.0% | 60.2% | 62.2% | 63.7% | 61.3% |
Non-IDUs | ||||||
Number | 3,002 | 5,828 | 8,079 | 4,935 | 1,616 | 23,458 |
Prevalence no. | 14 | 24 | 30 | 24 | 10 | 103 |
Prevalence rate | 0.48% | 0.42% | 0.37% | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.44% |
All prisoners* | ||||||
Number | 4,288 | 8,325 | 11,541 | 7,050 | 2,308 | 33,512 |
Prevalence no. | 811 | 1,547 | 2,112 | 1,339 | 451 | 6,261 |
Prevalence rate | 18.9% | 18.6% | 18.3% | 19.0% | 19.5% | 18.7% |
3.5 The sequelae of HCV infection
Table 7a presents the modelled incidence of sequelae of HCV infection in Canada from 1967 to 2027. In 2007, we estimated that 802 persons developed cirrhosis, 473 persons progressed to decompensated liver failure, 292 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma occurred and 134 persons received a liver transplant due to HCV infection. In all, 483 persons died of HCV-related causes in 2007. Sequelae estimated assumed that infection incidence and immigration trends were stable after 2007. Note also that projections from 2007 to 2027 do not take into account the possible impacts of treatment. According to our model, the incidence of cirrhosis increased from 1967 to 1992, was relatively stable at around 800 new cases annually from 1992 to 2012 and will decrease slightly in subsequent years. However, the incidence of more advanced sequelae appears to peak later and mortality due to HCV continues to increase over the study period. The number of deaths from all HCV-related causes is projected to increase from 483 in 2007 to 613 in 2027, an increase of 27%.
The time trend in incidence of HCV sequelae is graphically depicted in Figure 2.
Year | HCV sequelae | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infections | Cirrhosis | Decomp | HCC | Transplant | Decomp deaths |
HCC deaths |
Transplant deaths |
Total liver deaths |
|
1967 | 16,563 | 120 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 24 |
1972 | 21,724 | 262 | 66 | 35 | 10 | 9 | 30 | 3 | 43 |
1977 | 24,233 | 430 | 117 | 61 | 19 | 16 | 54 | 7 | 77 |
1982 | 24,834 | 591 | 180 | 96 | 31 | 26 | 87 | 12 | 125 |
1987 | 18,497 | 733 | 254 | 139 | 49 | 41 | 128 | 20 | 189 |
1992 | 9,486 | 792 | 333 | 187 | 70 | 60 | 175 | 32 | 266 |
1997 | 8,058 | 808 | 397 | 230 | 94 | 80 | 220 | 47 | 346 |
2002 | 7,899 | 809 | 441 | 265 | 115 | 99 | 257 | 65 | 419 |
2007 | 7,945 | 802 | 473 | 292 | 134 | 114 | 285 | 82 | 483 |
2012 | 8,135 | 787 | 489 | 310 | 149 | 127 | 306 | 101 | 534 |
2017 | 8,269 | 772 | 494 | 321 | 160 | 137 | 319 | 117 | 572 |
2022 | 8,166 | 756 | 492 | 326 | 167 | 142 | 325 | 132 | 599 |
2027 | 7,959 | 736 | 483 | 325 | 171 | 146 | 326 | 142 | 613 |
Figure 2 - Modelled incidence of HCV sequelae by five-year interval, Canada 1967-2027
Table 7b presents the modelled prevalence of sequelae of HCV infection in Canada from 1967 to 2027. This table presents the total number of persons living with each complication of HCV infection and, thus, the numbers are not mutually exclusive. In 2007, an estimated 15,814 persons were living with cirrhosis, 5,495 in decompensated liver failure, 338 persons diagnosed with hepatocellular carcinoma and 1,187 post-transplant patients. According to our model, the prevalence of all sequelae of HCV infection will continue to increase in the future. The most dramatic increase is observed among post-transplant patients, from 1,187 in 2007 to 1,976 in 2027, an increase of 66%.
* Estimates are not mutually exclusive and include all persons in the category |
|||||
Year | HCV sequelae | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infection | Cirrhosis | Decomp | HCC | Transplant | |
1967 | 60,632 | 1,148 | 221 | 23 | 21 |
1972 | 117,726 | 2,054 | 410 | 39 | 50 |
1977 | 179,224 | 3,611 | 743 | 69 | 99 |
1982 | 232,945 | 5,605 | 1,252 | 109 | 181 |
1987 | 264,095 | 7,934 | 1,940 | 158 | 304 |
1992 | 263,878 | 10,477 | 2,799 | 215 | 474 |
1997 | 254,165 | 12,690 | 3,748 | 266 | 688 |
2002 | 246,682 | 14,421 | 4,666 | 305 | 933 |
2007 | 242,521 | 15,814 | 5,495 | 338 | 1,187 |
2012 | 239,134 | 16,755 | 6,186 | 360 | 1,430 |
2017 | 236,343 | 17,333 | 6,721 | 373 | 1,649 |
2022 | 232,684 | 17,592 | 7,101 | 378 | 1,833 |
2027 | 227,371 | 17,570 | 7,333 | 379 | 1,976 |
The data in Table 7b is graphically depicted in Figure 3.
Tables 7c presents the modelled prevalence of sequelae of HCV infection in Canada from 1967 to 2027 in mutually exclusive categories classified according to the most advanced sequela (i.e. transplant, farthest to the right in the table).
Figure 3 - Modelled prevalence§ (not exclusive*) of HCV sequelae by five-year interval, Canada, 1967-2027
§ Estimates assume stable risk populations and HCV infection risks and do not adjust for treatment.
* Estimates are mutually exclusive and are classified according to the category furthest to the bottom.
* Estimates are mutually exclusive and are classified according to the category furthest to the right in the table | |||||
Year | HCV sequelae | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Infection | Cirrhosis | Decomp | HCC | Transplant | |
1967 | 59,484 | 910 | 194 | 23 | 21 |
1972 | 115,672 | 1,615 | 350 | 39 | 50 |
1977 | 175,613 | 2,818 | 625 | 69 | 99 |
1982 | 227,340 | 4,276 | 1,039 | 109 | 181 |
1987 | 256,161 | 5,886 | 1,586 | 158 | 304 |
1992 | 253,401 | 7,536 | 2,252 | 215 | 474 |
1997 | 241,475 | 8,774 | 2,962 | 266 | 688 |
2002 | 232,261 | 9,571 | 3,612 | 305 | 933 |
2007 | 226,707 | 10,122 | 4,167 | 338 | 1,187 |
2012 | 222,379 | 10,366 | 4,599 | 360 | 1,430 |
2017 | 219,010 | 10,408 | 4,903 | 373 | 1,649 |
2022 | 215,092 | 10,289 | 5,092 | 378 | 1,833 |
2027 | 209,801 | 10,038 | 5,177 | 379 | 1,976 |
3.6 Reported cases of HCV in Canada
Hepatitis C was first made a reportable disease in some provinces in Canada in 1991. Almost all reports come from laboratory tests confirming the presence of HCV infection. Duplicates are removed at data entry at the public health units when the identifying information of a new case report matches perfectly or almost perfectly with a case previously entered. Case data is collected by provinces and territories in Canada and transmitted regularly to the Public Health Agency of Canada. Obvious duplicates are also identified and removed at the provincial and territorial level.
Table 8a presents the number of HCV cases reported in Canada from 1991 to 2007 that were reported to the Public Health Agency of Canada as of September 2008. Cumulatively, 212,782 cases were reported in Canada during this period. The data provided were missing cases from several jurisdictions in the early years following the licensing of the HCV test. This is unlikely due to lack of HCV testing but rather to delayed reportability or delayed reporting of cases to the Public Health Agency of Canada. To adjust for this, missing data from several provinces and one territory was imputed based on the proportion of cases in years when reporting appeared more complete.
Table 8b presents the adjusted number of hepatitis C cases reported in Canada from 1991 to 2007. Cumulatively, 221,198 cases were reported in Canada during this period. The number of reported cases peaked in 1998 when 20,280 HCV cases were reported. A decreasing trend has been observed since then; 12,007 new cases were reported in 2006 and 11,795 in 2007. Despite this decreasing trend, this large number of cases in recent years compared to the likely fewer than 2,000 incident cases reported in the year they occur suggests that a substantial proportion of reported cases are “prevalent” infections and the reservoir of undiagnosed infections is not close to being exhausted.
*Reflects data reported to the Public Health Agency of Canada as of September 30, 2008. Variability may exist between data reported by the provinces/territories and the Public Health Agency of Canada. Provincial/territorial data are definitive should a discrepancy exist. |
||||||||||||||
Year of report |
Province/Territory | Total | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
British Columbia | Alberta | Saskatch- ewan |
Manitoba | Ontario | Quebec | New Brunswick | Nova Scotia | PEI | Newfound- land |
Yukon | NWT | Nuna- vut |
||
1991 | 316 | 19 | 25 | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - | 362 |
1992 | 936 | 44 | 74 | - | 1,721 | 1 | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | 2,777 |
1993 | 1,005 | 62 | 343 | - | 2,557 | 4 | 93 | - | 1 | 2 | - | - | - | 4,067 |
1994 | 1,902 | 61 | 556 | - | 3,628 | 2 | 62 | - | 3 | 19 | 10 | - | - | 6,243 |
1995 | 4,648 | 102 | 583 | - | 7,318 | 2 | 143 | - | - | 41 | 44 | - | - | 12,881 |
1996 | 6,140 | 103 | 524 | - | 7,782 | 51 | 160 | 336 | - | 36 | 67 | - | - | 15,199 |
1997 | 7,728 | 127 | 604 | - | 6,458 | 1,687 | 177 | 528 | - | 43 | 69 | - | - | 17,421 |
1998 | 6,267 | 1,506 | 917 | - | 7,045 | 3,070 | 218 | 429 | 59 | 46 | 57 | - | - | 19,614 |
1999 | 4,999 | 2,333 | 537 | 573 | 6,458 | 3,288 | 186 | 305 | 26 | 46 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 18,821 |
2000 | 4,385 | 2,123 | 720 | 505 | 5,755 | 3,671 | 211 | 254 | 11 | 43 | 45 | 29 | 6 | 17,758 |
2001 | 4,370 | 2,128 | 684 | 656 | 5,502 | 2,961 | 179 | 195 | 27 | 46 | 45 | 38 | 12 | 16,843 |
2002 | 4,533 | 1,862 | 735 | 449 | 5,390 | 2,422 | 149 | 257 | 38 | 39 | 44 | 33 | 6 | 15,957 |
2003 | 3,602 | 1,574 | 643 | 451 | 5,329 | 2,570 | 214 | 256 | 38 | 57 | 41 | 26 | 5 | 14,806 |
2004 | 3,061 | 1,504 | 807 | 423 | 5,265 | 2,928 | 202 | 242 | 31 | 78 | 24 | 37 | 5 | 14,607 |
2005 | 2,856 | 1,435 | 666 | 419 | 4,494 | 2,455 | 272 | 254 | 43 | 84 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 13,043 |
2006 | 2,853 | 1,183 | 595 | 320 | 4,221 | 2,242 | 140 | 259 | 33 | 100 | 38 | 20 | 3 | 12,007 |
2007 | 2,873 | 513 | 380 | 174 | 4,333 | 1,823 | 90 | - | 50 | 90 | 31 | 17 | 2 | 10,376 |
Total | 62,474 | 16,679 | 9,393 | 3,970 | 83,256 | 29,177 | 2,496 | 3,315 | 363 | 770 | 587 | 250 | 52 | 212,782 |
*The provincial and territorial estimates of HCV prevalence presented here are based relative weights among the jurisdictions derived from years for which data on reported cases were available to the Public Health Agency of Canada as of September 30, 2008. Provincial/territorial data are definitive should a discrepancy exist. |
||||||||||||||
Year of report |
Province/Territory | Total | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
British Columbia | Alberta | Saskatch- ewan |
Manitoba | Ontario | Quebec | New Brunswick | Nova Scotia | PEI | Newfound- land |
Yukon | NWT | Nuna- vut |
||
1991 | 316 | 19 | 25 | - | - | - | - | - | 2 | - | - | - | - | 362 |
1992 | 936 | 44 | 74 | 60 | 1,721 | 169 | 82 | 34 | 1 | 10 | 7 | - | - | 3,138 |
1993 | 1,005 | 62 | 343 | 68 | 2,557 | 190 | 93 | 39 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - | - | 4,377 |
1994 | 1,902 | 61 | 556 | 114 | 3,628 | 323 | 62 | 65 | 3 | 19 | 10 | - | - | 6,743 |
1995 | 4,648 | 102 | 583 | 535 | 7,318 | 1,518 | 143 | 305 | - | 41 | 44 | - | - | 15,237 |
1996 | 6,140 | 103 | 524 | 588 | 7,782 | 1,670 | 160 | 336 | - | 36 | 67 | - | - | 17,406 |
1997 | 7,728 | 127 | 604 | 597 | 6,458 | 1,687 | 177 | 528 | - | 43 | 69 | - | - | 18,018 |
1998 | 6,267 | 1,506 | 917 | 666 | 7,045 | 3,070 | 218 | 429 | 59 | 46 | 57 | - | - | 20,280 |
1999 | 4,999 | 2,333 | 537 | 573 | 6,458 | 3,288 | 186 | 305 | 26 | 46 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 18,821 |
2000 | 4,385 | 2,123 | 720 | 505 | 5,755 | 3,671 | 211 | 254 | 11 | 43 | 45 | 29 | 6 | 17,758 |
2001 | 4,370 | 2,128 | 684 | 656 | 5,502 | 2,961 | 179 | 195 | 27 | 46 | 45 | 38 | 12 | 16,843 |
2002 | 4,533 | 1,862 | 735 | 449 | 5,390 | 2,422 | 149 | 257 | 38 | 39 | 44 | 33 | 6 | 15,957 |
2003 | 3,602 | 1,574 | 643 | 451 | 5,329 | 2,570 | 214 | 256 | 38 | 57 | 41 | 26 | 5 | 14,806 |
2004 | 3,061 | 1,504 | 807 | 423 | 5,265 | 2,928 | 202 | 242 | 31 | 78 | 24 | 37 | 5 | 14,607 |
2005 | 2,856 | 1,435 | 666 | 419 | 4,494 | 2,455 | 272 | 254 | 43 | 84 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 13,043 |
2006 | 2,853 | 1,183 | 595 | 320 | 4,221 | 2,242 | 140 | 259 | 33 | 100 | 38 | 20 | 3 | 12,007 |
2007 | 2,862 | 1,290 | 497 | 349 | 4,333 | 1,849 | 187 | 223 | 49 | 95 | 41 | 16 | 4 | 11,795 |
Total | 62,463 | 17,456 | 9,510 | 6,773 | 83,256 | 33,013 | 2,675 | 3,981 | 362 | 794 | 612 | 249 | 54 | 221,198 |
Figure 4 shows graphically the annual number of reported HCV cases in Canada from 1991 to 2007.
Figure 4 - Number of reported HCV diagnoses by year, adjusted, Canada, 1991-2007
As noted in Section 2.12 above, we wished to estimate the number of diagnosed HCV-infected persons who were still alive as of end 2007 to compare to the number of modelled HCV-infected persons at that time. Table 8c presents the results of this calculation and the comparison. As seen in the third column of data from the left, 192,225 or 87% of the cumulatively diagnosed HCV-infected persons were still alive as of December 2007. Overall, we estimate that 79% of the modelled number of HCV-infected persons living in 2007 have been diagnosed. This varied considerably by province/territory and, with the exception of Nunavut, represented from 44% to 133% of the modelled number of HCV infections.
*The provincial and territorial estimates of HCV prevalence presented here are based on an interpolation from national estimates and may be subject to considerable uncertainty. Provincial/territorial data are definitive should a discrepancy exist. Source: Statistics Canada. Quarterly Demographic Estimates - October to December 2007, Preliminary. Catalogue no. 91-002-X, vol. 21, no. 4. March 2008 |
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Province / territory | Modelled | Cumulative diagnosed |
Cumulative diagnosed, surviving | Proportion diagnosed | Population Dec 31, 2007 | Rate surviving |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
British Columbia | 53,254 | 62,463 | 53,736 | 101% | 4,413,973 | 1.22 |
Alberta | 24,081 | 17,456 | 15,666 | 65% | 3,497,881 | 0.45 |
Saskatchewan | 6,234 | 9,510 | 8,290 | 133% | 1,006,644 | 0.82 |
Manitoba | 8,401 | 6,773 | 5,889 | 70% | 1,193,566 | 0.49 |
Ontario | 102,858 | 83,256 | 71,811 | 70% | 12,861,940 | 0.56 |
Quebec | 37,505 | 33,013 | 29,179 | 78% | 7,730,612 | 0.38 |
New Brunswick | 2,467 | 2,675 | 2,344 | 95% | 751,250 | 0.31 |
Nova Scotia | 4,252 | 3,981 | 3,460 | 81% | 935,573 | 0.37 |
PEI | 602 | 362 | 329 | 55% | 139,089 | 0.24 |
Newfoundland | 640 | 794 | 713 | 112% | 508,099 | 0.14 |
Yukon | 1,209 | 612 | 532 | 44% | 31,247 | 1.70 |
NWT | 243 | 249 | 226 | 93% | 31,142 | 0.73 |
Nunavut | 778 | 54 | 49 | 6% | 42,594 | 0.12 |
Canada | 242,521 | 221,198 | 192,225 | 79% | 33,143,610 | 0.58 |
Figure 5 shows a graph of the number and rate of persons living with HCV infection by province/territory.
Figure 5 - Prevalence* (number and rate) of surviving reported HCV cases by province/territory, Canada, December 2007
*The provincial and territorial estimates of HCV prevalence presented here are based on an interpolation from national estimates and may be subject to considerable uncertainty. Provincial/territorial data are definitive should a discrepancy exist.
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